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Wednesday 6 December 2023 07:29, UK
Our tipster Jones Knows takes aim at the Premier League midweek card and believes it is Aston Villa's perfect chance to beat Man City on Wednesday.
If you ever needed some hard evidence to showcase that Roberto De Zerbi's team aren't playing to their usual barnstorming standards, looking at the difference in match prices from the last two meetings of this fixture is a good place to start.
Brighton went off 4/7 with Sky Bet for a win in this fixture in April but are bordering on Evens to beat Brentford on Wednesday. That's a 13 per cent swing in probability. The suspension of Lewis Dunk remains a massive issue and is factored into that price as Brighton have failed to win the last six games without him, losing four of those.
With the atmosphere and schedule pointing towards a lower goal average that usual this midweek, the under goals market has caught my attention. Brentford are happy to turn a game ugly on the road as shown by 11 of their last 12 away matches falling under the 3.5 goals line. When the goal count is predicted low then the draw always becomes a runner so I'm happy to invest in the 7/2 for the game to be a draw and produce less than 2.5 goals - in other words splitting stakes on 0-0 and 1-1.
If Bournemouth bring the same noise and electricity from their recent three performances, then Crystal Palace could be in for a night of pain.
The away win at 11/5 with Sky Bet is very easy to advise considering Andoni Iraola's team have managed to score seven goals to a backdrop of 7.32 worth of expected goals against Newcastle, Aston Villa and Sheffield United. He has found his formula and it's working a charm. This front-foot, high-pressing and no-fear approach could just leave the Selhurst Park crowd rather envious as their workmanlike side try and play the contain game.
This attacking approach, involving players high on confidence, makes Bournemouth's shots lines very appealing at the prices. They have averaged 19 shots per 90 in their last three impressive performances with a desire to employ attacking as the best line of defence when taking the lead. This style of football is great for a shots related play as there will be no let-up even if the game-state switches to Palace tasked with providing the onus.
I'm all over taking the 13 or more shots line at 11/10 with Sky Bet. Combining the away win and the 13 or more line results in a 7/2 shot that is dripping with potential.
Nottingham Forest have won one of their last 10 Premier League games. It's becoming an alarming run and one associated with relegation threatened teams. That is obviously getting the owner a tad twitchy. Steve Cooper needs a result. But this game does scream low-scoring draw.
Morgan Gibbs-White is always a player that draws me in to the goalscorer market as I'm convinced a player of his ability will go on a goal glut soon enough. He's certainly been threatening more in recent weeks, playing in a new role down the right. He's had 13 shots in his last three appearances, scoring with a penalty in the 3-2 defeat to Brighton. With penalties being awarded on average one every 3.2 games this season and Gibbs-White the designated spot-kick taker for Forest, his anytime scorer price of 9/2 is a real tempter.
When a defence are used to playing with a goalkeeper who can be relied upon and then that changes, the nerves spread. That type of defending was on show for Liverpool's chaotic 4-3 win over Fulham, where Caoimhin Kelleher's performance only further enhanced just how important Alisson is.
Since the start of the 20/21 season, Alisson has now missed nine Premier League games for Liverpool and the basic raw data shows that their goals conceded per 90 rises from 0.9 to 2.1 when he is absent. A huge spike. Even Fulham, a team with problems in front goal, managed to score three times at Anfield with Kelleher arguably at fault for two of those goals.
Following on from his shaky showing in the 4-4 draw with Southampton towards the end of season, that's seven goals shipped in his last two Premier League starts for Kelleher, who has yet to convince he has the game to be a consistent top-level performer.
This looks the time to try and profit from Liverpool being wobblier than usual in defence. And although Sheffield United are a tame outfit in attack, Paul Heckingbottom's impending departure and potential appointment of Chris Wilder can play a part in lifting the mood at Bramall Lane, so the Blades can follow the likes of Fulham and Southampton in finding a way past the vulnerable Kelleher. The both teams to score and over 2.5 goals play at 10/11 with Sky Bet looks a winner in waiting.
Pep Guardiola is the itch that Unai Emery can't scratch. The pair have met 13 times and Emery has yet to taste victory over his compatriot, losing the last five to an aggregate score of 15-3.
But this could be the best opportunity he'll ever get to break his duck. Villa are on a winning run of 13 Premier League home games and City will have to adjust to life without Rodri, who is serving a suspension. In eight matches without their star holding midfielder, City have lost five of those.
His influence is most certainly missed and with that area of pitch coming under scrutiny this season for Guardiola, he will have to fix it for this one. This looks a great opportunity to back Villa on the draw no bet market at a juicy 9/4 with Sky Bet, meaning stakes are returned if the match ends level.
Chelsea going off favourites at Old Trafford despite their struggles this season tells you all you need to know about where Manchester United are right now. They are being treated by the markets as a bog-standard mid-table Premier League side. That said, Chelsea are always strongly fancied week-on-week by the odds makers and are 11/8 to leave Manchester with three points. It looks a solid punt to me.
Chelsea should be able to dominate down both flanks with the skill and speed of Raheem Sterling to the fore. Sterling is playing some of the best football of his career. He leads the charts for take-ons in the Premier League this season (76) and this direct dribbling is resulting in some tricky situations for his markers. The Chelsea winger has drawn 12 yellow cards this season - no player has drawn more - and he's working at an average of two fouls drawn per 90 minutes. This makes the prices surrounding Diogo Dalot making two or more fouls in the game at 6/4 very appealing if he lines up against Sterling.
Prediction to follow...
Prediction to follow...
